Stuart Skinner

A note on expectations and roster construction

Last night I saw this tweet floating around:

Not gonna lie, the art style is really fun. The stats leave a lot to be desired.

And it made me wonder, who do people expect Stuart Skinner to be?

Every time I see something about Stuart Skinner, it’s seems to be a tacit comparison to Bobrovsky or somehow otherwise implying that Edmonton needs exceptional goaltending to win the cup.

Stuart Skinner, by my estimation, is anywhere from the 3rd to 6th most consequential player on the Oilers on a given night. I define “consequential players” as the kind of guys who play well when their team wins and play abnormally poorly when their team loses. “Valuable” is production-based; “consequential” is context-based.

If you look at Edmonton’s lineup, you might notice the conspicuous presence of two of the best players in the world, two of the better defencemen in the league, another 50-goal scorer, and a 100-assist player.

These are the proverbial ‘best players’ who need to be Edmonton’s best players come playoff time. For most of the playoffs, they have. Not in this cup final.

So let’s take a look at each stat that tweet provides and answer its burning question which it poses to us based on a pretty unfavourable sample.

• 0-3 record

  • Irrelevant stat. Goalies can’t secure wins. They can only prevent losses.

• 59/68 shots

  • Isn’t the 9 goals allowed the more relevant stat here. That translates to 3 goals a game. Given the fact that this is a team with two of the best offensive players in this generation of immense talent, I think the burning problem isn’t the goaltending. Also, the Sv% is right below. No need to show your work here, buddy.

• .868 sv%

  • Here’s the thing about playoffs: you play the same team a bunch of times. This means that if a team only has one goalie play over the course of a series, that goalie’s sv% is equal to the other team’s s%. It’s zero sum. I’m just as inclined to believe that as much as Stuart Skinner is getting lit up, the Panthers are burying their chances with gusto

• -2.16 GSAx.

  • Fair enough. That’s not exactly ideal. But again, let’s flip this around. If Skinner has saved -2.16 GSAx, adding that to 9 GA means that Edmonton defense has 11.16 xGA that’s 0.0465 xGA/60 minutes. For comparison, the Minnesota Wild allowed 0.0467 xGA/60 minutes during this past regular season. The Oilers allowed 0.0442 xGA/60 minutes during the regular season — during a significant portion of which, they sucked. The Oilers cannot win by allowing Minnesota Wild-level xGA, when officer Bob is on the case at the other end.

So, let’s answer that question

Is this who Edmonton runs back with next year?

Well, let’s see

• Age 25

• 59 GP, 57 GS, .614 QS%, 3.1 GSAA, 2.0 GSAx, 9.2 GPS (35 games of above-average goaltending behind two of the best offensive talents in the world, is a good recipe for success)

• “In 2024-25, Skinner will earn a base salary of $2,500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $2,600,000”¹

Stuart Skinner is a young, cheap goaltender who is very likely to improve next year. I’d say he’s not the best goalie in the league, but he just might be the best goalie —at his cost— for the Edmonton Oilers.

So let’s all make like prognosticating blacksmiths and temper our expectations.

1. Courtesy of Sportrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/player/_/id/23800/stuart-skinner#:~:text=2023%2D2025%20Extension,a%20cap%20hit%20of%20%242%2C600%2C000.