The Hall of Fame Case For Marc-André Fleury

Properly contextualizing a misunderstood career

Marc-André Fleury during the 2023-24 season, his 20th of 21 in the NHL. He’s a presumptive Hall of Famer, but I see his case differently than most

Marc Andre-Fleury (left) c. 2004. Love the dedication to yellow pads

Marc-André Fleury having just played the final game of his career, I figure it’s only fitting to do this article to present the argument for why he is a Hall-of-Famer.

What’s that? People say he is pretty much a lock to get in, and this article is pointless? Well, it’s not. People don’t know what actually makes Fleury’s career special and this article presents the only legitimate reason to induct him. Furthermore, if you’ve studied formal logic, you might be aware that true premises and a true conclusion can still be faulty.

For example you might deduce that

1. The Toronto Blue Jays are a pro baseball team that plays home games in Toronto

2. The Rogers Centre is a pro baseball stadium in Toronto

3. Therefore, the Blue Jays play home games at the Rogers Centre

100% true. But it’s not good logic because

1. The New York Mets are a pro baseball team that plays home games in New York City

2. Yankee stadium is a pro baseball stadium in New York City

3. Therefore, the New York Mets play home games at Yankee Stadium

For all the reasons traditionalists might give for Fleury being a Hall of Famer, it’s not why he should be.

Why He’s Not a Hall of Famer

So, let’s start of this Hall of Fame argument by breaking down why he’s not a Hall of Famer. Well let’s go down his resumé

1. 3-time cup-winner, 5-time cup-finalist: well, here’s the really funny thing about Fleury’s cups — they he was only on the ice for the end of the last game of 3 of those series, losing 2. Yeah, he played some games in the 2016 and 2017 runs, but only a couple.

2. 1-time Vezina-winner: It’s appropriate that Fleury’s only Vezina came in the shortened 2020-21 season, because the 36 games he started that season matched about what his best stretches were in other good seasons. But Fleury has never really been a “full season” guy. It’s hardly surprising.

3. 1-time Jennings-winner: Wait, what’s this doing here? This is supposed to be about individual achievements, not team ones.

So, I’ve spent time ragging on Fleury. You might be wondering “is this how you honour a guy’s career?” Well, yeah. Fleury doesn’t need me to pump up his career, it was pretty good by its own merits. Plus, I’m looking at it and giving my honest assessment. And here’s the thing about Fleury: we’ve gotten to know him a while. It’s been 21 seasons and he’s still playing.

What’s wonderful about Fleury is that his career is full of self-contradictions. He backstopped three finals runs, but came up short in his two best ones. He’s also had his share of early playoff exits. For as long as he’s played he’s been a good goalie for most of his career, but he has also never been elite.

Is he a workhorse starter? I wouldn’t say so. He might have played an adjacent role in his later Pittsburgh years, but never truly thrived in that role. Does he have a peak? Kinda. His Vegas years were mostly great, cementing the groundwork his first and last few Penguins seasons had laid for his reputation. It was to the point that when Fleury was dealt to the Blackhawks, it caused a whole lotta uproar among fans. Trading a legend for “pennies on the dollar”? Well, actually, that was what he was worth. Fleury was at best a 1B by the time he left Vegas.

People don’t like Vegas because of the circumstances of their birth. Circumstances like the Penguins needed to protect their cup-winning forward depth, and with Murray’s ascendancy, they thought Fleury was expendable — you could argue that Fleury’s re-ascendancy with Vegas was foreseeable, but it was also the right choice to let him go. Circumstances like Florida just gave Vegas two 30-goal scorers for free basically. Circumstances like Vegas made good personnel choices. Circumstances like the NHL looking at the overwhelming cromulence then-16 seasons of Blue Jacket and Wild hockey had wrought, and deciding that maybe semi-punitive expansion practices are counterproductive to giving new franchises opportunity for success. How dare they do all that!

So anyways, back to Fleury.

So why or how is Fleury a Hall of Famer, then?

Well, it’s kinda simple: he was good enough for long enough. That’s it. He’s not an inner-circle guy, but it’s fine, honestly. It’ll be a marked improvement over the inductions of Barrasso and (especially) Vernon in the class of 2023. He’s not on the same level ans Lundqvist, whom I’d estimate as the median HOF goalie. Although, there are some interesting parallels between Fleury and the former two goalies. Besides being a cup-winners with the Pens and first-overall picks, Fleury and Barrasso both established themselves as starters in their teens, experienced a decline in play quality after some early success, then resurged later on — Fleury had the more prolonged resurgence and more graceful decline, but I believe Barrasso was the better goalie earlier. Vernon, like Fleury, is remembered for the wrong finals runs, and only produced a handful of seasons I’d categorize as “truly elite”.

Fleury also might be the last goalie to start 1000 games. To be an NHL starter for 1000 games is nothing to shake a fist at. 55 starts over 21 seasons yields 1100 starts. 55 starts is roughly 2/3’s of an 82-game season. So basically, the only way to reach that is to average starting every 2 games for every 1 you’re on the bench… for 21 seasons. Oh! And Fleury’s career included approximately two fewer seasons with the 04/05 lockout, the 12/13 lockout, and then split across the two COVID seasons. To be fair, Marty Brodeur, the guy ahead of Fleury by approximately 200 GP and 14000 minutes, didn’t have two COVID years to contend with, but still had yet another lockout to deal with. All the same, Fleury is still 2nd all-time in goalie minutes played and goalie games played. He might not be caught, but it is feasible to imagine it happening.

Fleury started in the NHL at 19 years old, which basically doesn’t happen anymore — with good reason. Of all goalies Hockey Reference considers still active (i.e. under contract), only 5 played in their age-19 season, and the closest anyone has come to reaching Fleury’s 19 games in 2003-04 was Robin Lehner’s 8 in 2010-11.

For a modern goalie, we’d need someone who gets their start around age 21, is a starter out of the gate, is a 1A or 1B only after age 34 and then a backup after age 37. Andrei Vasilevskiy and/or Connor Hellebuyck — two goalies drafted in the 2010s whom I’m certain will be HOFers regardless — could be the next goalies to pass 1000 starts, and eventually Fleury.

Vasilevskiy has averaged almost exactly 48 games per season since entering the league. At 529 starts, he might not pass Fleury unless he’s a solid starter/1A for the next 9 seasons! Possible, but maybe unlikely. Hellebuyck, meanwhile, has averaged 55.7 starts per season since entering the league and seems to have a more forgiving shot at passing 1000 starts. Especially since Hellebuyck’s deeper-crease, more positional profile seems poised to age better than Vasilevskiy’s more athletic style. But then again, Fleury’s incredible athleticism was essentially his most utilized tool, so who knows.

I’ll be honest, I’m probably not done talking about Fleury. Over the off-season, I want to do more video analysis, and I don’t think anyone provides as good examples of “save selection” as Fleury. Save selection might sound really complicated and abstract, but it really is what it says: it’s the kind of save you choose to make. It’s a simultaneously anticipatory and reactionary¹ act. I can honestly say that sometimes it’s a choice, but from that choice, you still need to react or block. Fleury is a well-known outlier in this regard as evidenced by his utilization of the two-pad stack, for example. With Fleury, it’s always a double-edged sword, however.

In any case, he’s a lock for the Hall of Fame class of 2027. And perhaps — if we’re doing the 2023 thing by waiting for a guy who’s a lock to be up for induction to throw a buncha goalies in — he, Joseph, and his teammate from 2012-13, Tomaš Vokoun could join him there.

1. As in “pertaining to an actual reaction.”